For many years, communities have prepared themselves to deal with accidental atmospheric releases from industrial sites, energy facilities, and vehicles transporting hazardous materials. Today, these communities must also worry about the terrorist threat of the intentional use of chemical, biological, and nuclear (C/B/N) agents. Because of this threat, the ability to predict and track the dispersal of harmful agents has become a critical element of terrorism planning and response.


Our nation's capacity to respond to atmospheric C/B/N events stands, like a three legged stool, on the strength of three interconnected elements: 1) dispersion models that predict the path and spread of the hazardous agent; 2) observations of the hazardous plume itself and of local meteorological conditions, which provide critical input for the models; and 3) interaction with emergency responders who use the information provided by the models.


As part of the National Academies continuing focus on issues of homeland security, Tracking and Predicting the Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Releases examines our nation's current capabilities in these three areas and provides recommendations for strengthening them.

Table of Contents


Front Matter
Executive Summary
1. Introduction
2. User Needs
3. Observational Capabilities and Needs
4. Dispersion Modeling: Application to C/B/N Releases
References
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Committee Biographies
Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and Participant List
Appendix B: Overview of Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling
Appendix C: Meteorological Observing Systems for Tracking and Modeling C/B/N Plumes
Appendix D: Scientific and Technical Information Needs of Emergency First Responders
Appendix E: Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations
Appendix F: Modeling Studies of the Dispersion of Smoke Plumes from the World Trade Center Fires
Appendix G: Use of Atmospheric Models in Response to the Chernobyl Disaster
Appendix H: Preparatory Exercises at the Salt Lake City Olympics
Appendix I: URBAN 2000 Overview
Color Plates