The realizationoftheresearch project documented in thisstudy wouldnot have been possible without the kind support and help of several people. I want totaketheopportunitytoexpressmygratitudetothem. Myfirstand foremost thanks go to my thesis supervisor Claude Hillinger. He steadily supported my work with a host of ideas,criticism and encouragement. He has been influential and inspiring in his comments and criticism on alllev- elsofdevelopment ofthisdissertation. My sincerethanksare dueto Ulrich Woitek,teachingmefromtheverybeginninginprogrammingandlettingme participate from his expert knowledgeintimeseriesanalysis. UlrichWoitek and Michael Reiter kindly provided me with software and encouraged me throughoutthe whole dissertation project with their comments and in dis- cussionsduringtheir staysat Munichand via e-mail. Theyhavehelped me totake many hurdles, particularly in the early stages ofthe project. I am indebted tomyco-supervisor Stephan Klasen forhisengagement andopen- minded interest in mythesis. To makethe present work more readable,my friendsin the US,JeanCzerlinskyandRadovanVadovic,madegreat efforts to correct language and style. lowe a great debt of gratitude to them.
I alsothankReginaRiphahnandBurkhardHeer fortheir encouragement and helpful guidance. Special thanksgo to Barbara Dluhosch, JakobdeHaan,Burkhard Heer andGerhardIlling. Astheirteachingassistanttheyallgavemetheresources andnecessaryscopeofdevelopmentformydissertationprojectinastimulat- ingenvironmentattheEconomics DepartmentoftheUniversity ofMunich. Ithank BeatriceDumpertand BrigitteGebhardfor their maternal motiva- tional support and help in administrative matters. Finally, I am indebted to MaximilianFreier for hisreliablesupportand forcross-readingnumerous preliminarydraftsofthethesis. I gratefully acknowledge the Bavarian Young Scientists Grant (Pro- motionsstipendium nach dem Gesetz zur Forderung des bayerischen wis- senschaftlichen Nachwuchses) for financial support during the first years of my dissertation project. Munich,August 2002 BerndSilssmutli Contents 1. Introduction...1 1. 1 BusinessCycle Research:21st CenturyPerspective 1 1. 1. 1 TheClassicView...3 1. 1. 2 From CBC toRBC School...