The global spread of science and technology expertise and the growing commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military application are creating potentially serious threats to the technological superiority underpinning U.S. military strength. Key to dealing with this situation is the ability of the U.S. intelligence community to be able to provide adequate and effective warning of evolving, critical technologies. To assist in performing this task, the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake a study examining technology warning issues. This report provides the first part of that study. It presents an assessment of critical, evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt these technologies; and provides indicators for the intelligence community to determine if such methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship with the technology warning community to support the examination of technology warning issues.Table of Contents


Front Matter
Executive Summary
1 Technology Warning: Motivation and Challenge
2 Committee Methodology
3 Challenges to Information Superiority
4 Future Threats to U.S. Airpower in Urban Warfare
5 Combatant Identification in Urban Warfare
6 Biotechnology Trends Relevant to Warfare Initiatives
7 Findings and Recommendations
Appendix A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
Appendix B Presentations to the Committee
Appendix C Background Material for Chapter 1
Appendix D Background Material for Chapter 3
Appendix E Background Material for Chapter 6