In the aftermath of catastrophes, it is common to find prior indicators, missed signals, and dismissed alerts that, had they been recognized and appropriately managed before the event, could have resulted in the undesired event being averted. These indicators are typically called "precursors." Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence documents various industrial and academic approaches to detecting, analyzing, and benefiting from accident precursors and examines public-sector and private-sector roles in the collection and use of precursor information. The book includes the analysis, findings and recommendations of the authoring NAE committee as well as eleven individually authored background papers on the opportunity of precursor analysis and management, risk assessment, risk management, and linking risk assessment and management.

Table of Contents


Front Matter
Section I Committee Summary Report1 The Accident Precursors Project: Overview and Recommendations
Section II Keynote Speakers2 The Opportunity of Precursors
On Signals, Response, and Risk Mitigation: A Probabilistic Approach to the Detection and Analysis of Precursors
Section III Risk Assessment4 Understanding Accident Precursors
5 Defining and Analyzing Precursors
6 Nuclear Accident Precursor Assessment: The Accident Sequence Precursor Program
Section IV Risk Management7 Inherently Safer Design
8 Checking for Biases in Incident Reporting
9 Knowledge Management in High-Hazard Industries: Accident Precursors as Practice
Section V Linking Risk Assessment and Risk Management10 Cross-Industry Applications of a Confidential Reporting Model
11 Stuck on a Plateau: A Common Problem
12 Ensuring Robust Military Operations and Combating Terrorism Using Accident Precursor Concepts
Appendix A Letters to the Committee
Appendix B Workshop Agenda
Appendix C Workshop Participants
Appendix D A Note on Definitions
Appendix E Biographies of Authors
Appendix F Biographies of Committee Members