China’s rise will be long-term punitive for the rest of Asia. Across all aspects of Asian geopolitics and economics, China’s ascendency to regional hegemonic status will result in the decline of its neighbours’ political independence, economic dynamism and future growth potential. Any short-term benefits of China’s growth, such as increased trade, will be transitory. The longer-term implications of its emergence as the regional hegemon will be greater economic and financial dependencies and vulnerabilities, the large-scale shift of business activity to within its boundaries and its increasing geopolitical influence across the region.

The challenge for China’s neighbours is how to respond to these evolving dynamics, especially as their strategic options are increasingly limited and few of the potential future scenarios are long-term positive. China’s rise, therefore, be Asia’s decline.