Scenario Planning Managing for the Future Gill Ringland "Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice." Arie De Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of The Living Company "Never since the great geographical expansions of the eighteenth century has so much latent potential been met with tools so ill-fitted to harness it. Information technology will change how, where, when we work. Scenario Planning offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to this and other forms of complexity; offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change." Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum Business today operates in a world of major change. Economies, commerce and lifestyles are constantly shifting but it is the information revolution which will prove the most radical since its agricultural and industrial counterparts. It cannot be constrained by borders but is simultaneously reaching across the world. In this environment, the techniques for planning business over the past decades are no longer sufficient. Forecasts based on current trends, or estimates of growth based on history are in danger of becoming obsolete all too quickly. The idea in the early days of mainframe computers that 'every major country will need one' demonstrates how uncertain the future can really be. The scenario planning techniques described in this book will enable anyone to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Key features are:
? detailed 'how to' look for early indicators of directions, and identify possible courses of action for those new to scenarios.
? extensive case studies, including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers.
? includes 'do' as well as 'do not' examples to aid practitioners; tells you what works when and why.
? takes a conceptual, rather than a mathematical approach.
The overall message of this book is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but they are powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Jacket illustration by Nick Orsborne
